No, idiots, Trump is not going to be removed from office

Trump is not going to be kicked out of the White House, people. Before you either lick your chops in anticipation (if you’re a leftist or a cuck) or run around in a latherous panic (if you’re a Trump supporter), do the electoral math:

Removing a President requires a vote on articles of impeachment in the House (simple majority) and then a two-thirds vote to convict in the Senate. We’re done. This is not going to happen. If you’re a Trump supporter, stop worrying. If you’re a Trump hater, stop clinging to empty hope. Move on with your life.

You can stop reading now, but if you have some time on your hands and are interested in the electoral arithmetic:

Here’s the Wikipedia page on the 2018 Senate elections:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2018
Infogalactic’s analogous page doesn’t have as much info, but if you’re curious:
https://infogalactic.com/info/United_States_Senate_elections,_2018

In the Senate in 2018, there are 25 currently Democratic seats that will be defended and 8 Republican seats. (Technically, 23 Dem seats, but two “independents” who caucus with the Dems, and 6 Republicans defending their seats, with 2 Republicans retiring so their seats will be open.) [UPDATE December 7: Now that Franken is resigning from the Senate, the Dems will be defending 26 seats, though the word around the campfire is that that seat is a pretty safe Dem seat.]

Republicans have 44 seats that are not open for election in 2018, so they will have at least 44 seats. Similarly, the Dems will have at least 23. The rest will be contested. Since the Dems are defending 25 seats and the Repubs only defending 8, the Dems are in a more precarious position. Some of each party’s seats are safe, of course, but that’s the basic idea.

Now let us think about it: The Reps have a locked in 44 seats. So the theoretical upper limit for the Dems – that’s if they win every election! – is 56. But they need two thirds, that is, 67, to convict! So even if they won every single Senate contest in 2018, which obviously is not going to happen, and even if every Dem Senator votes to convict – and some are from now-Republican-leaning states, so they won’t all dare to – they’d still need to pick up 11 Republican votes to convict!

Do you see now that this is seriously not going to happen? I can see, as an outside possibility, the notion that the House of Representatives might pass some articles of impeachment – though there’d be a lot of suddenly unemployed former House Republicans two years later – but the notion that the Senate would convict is beyond fanciful. Obviously the Dems aren’t going to win every Senate contest. Obviously not every single Dem is going to dare to vote to convict. Obviously they are not going to peel off 11 Republicans to vote to convict.

The best-case scenario for the left is that the House votes to impeach, i.e., to submit articles of impeachment to the Senate, and this is an annoying distraction for Trump and a short-run rhetorical victory for the left. In fact, this would be a significant long-term propaganda defeat for them, because it would be a pulling off of the mask that the left respects democracy. The more the left pulls hijinks like this, the more normies they wake up to their dictatorial nature.

So The God-Emperor is secure until he runs for re-election in 2020. At that point it’s moot, because he will either be re-elected or he won’t be. If he’s not re-elected, then the impeachment thing is obviously moot. If he is re-elected it’s a vote of confidence such that the Senate won’t dare to convict because his popularity will have been ratified twice.

Furthermore, after four years of “Impeach Trump!” it simply will have gone on too long. It be even more stale by then than it is now. Seriously, think about how stale it is now. Now imagine suffering through three more years of it. No one will even be listening to impeachment talk at that point.

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