The pessimistic crowd thinks, or claims to think, that the left could successfully genocide traditional Americans. This is utterly detached from reality. Keep in mind that there are about 2.2 million members of the armed forces – counting reservists – and about 145 million Americans who report having a gun in their household. There are north of 390 million firearms in the US. People who say we can’t successfully fight without a leader are neglecting the role of sheer brute-force quantity.
Example: Two professional soldiers who have been training together for years and are total bad-ass professionals, against a million other people, who are not bad-ass professionals. Who do you think will win?
Right. So we agree on the basic point and we’re just quibbling about where the line is. (“We’re just haggling over the price,” as the old joke has it.) (1)
145 million divided by 2.2 million equals about 66. We don’t have to ensure that we take casualties at a ratio less than 1-to-1. We could take casualties at a ratio of 23 to 1… and still have 100 million of us left when the military has literally run out of soldiers! We could take casualties at 46 to 1 and still have 50 million of us left when the military is gone!
But of course even this take is absurdly pessimistic, since a large fraction of the soldiers – probably a majority – are not going to participate in a genocide of incorrect Americans and would in fact fight it. The notion that white army guys are going to round up white Americans and genocide them is fucking ridiculous on its face.
By the way, the military has a dictum for officers: “Never give an order that won’t be obeyed.” Obviously the existence of this dictum implies that orders are disobeyed sometimes. And the dictum is a response to disobedience of orders that fall well short of “genocide all politically incorrect people.”
Yes, you in the back, what’s your question? “Dude, what about the officer purge that the Biden Administration is trying to do right now?!” That’s the officers, not the guys with guns.
Most people who have thought seriously about this danger, e.g. the commentariat at Eric Raymond’s blog, including the ex-mil people, have always said the citizens would win. I mention Raymond’s blog for no particular reason, except that IIRC it’s where an ex-mil guy once weighed in with this fact: When the US military runs war games for this scenario the US civilian population always wins.
Yes it’s outrageous that they’d run such war games, but the results are encouraging.
I also think the pessimists and I have different goals in mind. My victory is preventing genocide, not to personally survive. I mean, I want to survive, of course, but my main concern is that the good guys prevail in the end. I get the sense that the “Waaaaah, we can’t win” crowd is actually thinking, “There’s no guarantee of a victory in which I, personally, am not injured or killed.” Of course there isn’t. We are contemplating total war. The question is which side is going to win, not whether one side is going to win without suffering so much as a scratch.
If you’re hoping for a victory in which you have no danger, I’ll just remind you that these are basically Communists straight out of the twentieth century: The first thing they’ll do if we don’t resist them will be to genocide us. Keep that in mind and let it stiffen your resolve. I get the sense that a lot of the “Wah, it’s no use fighting” crowd (wussies) are too young to actually remember the Cold War, the reality of the Soviet Union. They really will kill you. It’s the first thing they’ll do if they have the power to do it. In the last century they murdered as many as 100 million people all over the world. The first sign that the hard left has taken over a nation is mass-scale slaughter. So firm up your spine, because we have nothing to lose by, um, vigorously resisting them if and when they come for us.
How did 20th-century governments accomplish such megadeath? Lots of disarmed populations and, I think more importantly, the fact that people simply couldn’t believe that they’d do it. We have like 400 million firearms, and the history of the twentieth century. When the Sargent says to his soldiers, “Round these people up into the cattle cars for relocation,” both the soldiers and the people they’re ordered to round up know what it means: Take them to death camps for genocide. The soldiers will mostly disobey, and the people will resist because they know they’ll be murdered if they don’t.
We know that left-wing governments really will genocide their own populations. Attempts to do this can no longer be protected by the population’s sheer disbelief that a government would do such a thing.
It’s the same situation if they’re “only” coming to take your guns. They’re re-branded 20th century communists: Why do you think they want to disarm you?
Another thought: Unlike the goal of people like e.g. the Jimmists, my goal is not to take control of the government, nice though that would be. It’s to avoid being genocided. To do that we don’t actually need to get Chuck Schumer out of the Senate, etc. We just need to become a sufficiently hard target so that the bad guys with guns stop trying to kill us.
It won’t be long before all of their guys with guns just refuse to continue the attempted slaughter. After the people they try to slaughter have taken down say a third of them, I’m pretty sure the remaining two thirds will suddenly find a lack of interest in obeying orders to attack. Cops and Antifa shock troops will start calling in sick on those days, or they will simply flat-out refuse to follow such orders. What’s Pelosi going to do about it when she orders a bunch of Washington cops to (try to) assassinate some right-wingers and the cops say “No”?
Such outright refusals have happened lots of times, including recently. After one of the BLM episodes in Atlanta in 2020, cops in Atlanta started calling in sick/resigning. Good guy cops in Michigan refused to enforce at least one of Iron Dingbat Whitmer’s orders. And note that the Second Amendment sanctuary town, county, and state idea is spreading, with sheriffs flat-out announcing that they won’t enforce or allow the enforcement of unconstitutional disarmament measures. On the other end, lots of Trump’s Executive Orders, etc, were flat-out defiantly ignored by many people in the executive branch.
There just aren’t that many cops/mils who genuinely want to genocide people of incorrect skin color… let alone want to do it enough to risk death for it!
And cops who aren’t even willing to risk their pensions are not going to risk their lives.
So then what happens? One possibility is a palace coup in which the military or law enforcement guys with guns get pissed at the ridiculous orders to risk themselves for leftists’ genocide fantasy, and take out the leftist government. Then we have a military junta government, which compared to off-the-leash leftism is heaven on earth.
Another possibility is this: When the mil and cops stop obeying orders to round us up and kill us, we eventually realize that they’ve stopped and the enforcement mechanism for less extreme leftist edicts is also gone. The federal government becomes ineffectual. Lo, many an edict issues forth from the marble-lined
sewer halls of Washington D.C., but the edicts are ignored. This will be an amusing (if you can ignore all the bloodshed that precedes it) new equilibrium: The President, House, and Senate continue to go through exactly the same Executive Orders and “passing of laws” and whatnot that they do today. And the laws are solemnly written into the Congressional Record. And nothing else happens. Joe Senator feels great because the New York Times continues to report, in a serious tone, on the bill he co-sponsored becoming law. And since nothing ever comes of that, except some ink is applied to some paper in Washington, everyone else is happy too.
We’ll have reached the state of Government as LARP.
In other words, we become like tons of other governments in the world. Consider some of the governments in the Americas, for example. Or this delightful factoid I heard about France years ago: Apparently in the early years of this century, some whackjobs in France decided to pass a law banning smoking in restaurants and cafes! (In France!) A few years later, the records for Paris showed that not one, not a single, ticket had been issued to anyone under this law. Enforcement was literally zero.(2) I’m sure that you, dear reader, can think of many examples like this from all over the world.
So in 2023 President Harris signs into law a requirement that every person, upon arriving to school or work in the morning, shout “I love transgenders!” three times. The law is written into the Congressional Record and is never heard from again.
Of course, SJWs will shriek with rage at the lack of compliance. That’s fine. Normal people are happy because it’s not enforced, and SJWs are happy because they have something about which they can shriek with pretend rage. Everybody wins!
(1) Another take on the point that quantity matters: If it doesn’t, then if you’re a right-leaning reader, why are you worried about immigration?
(2) And no, it wasn’t because compliance was 100%, duh. This is France. Glenn Reynolds (or someone) passed along an anecdote in which a guy was smoking in a café and serenely ignoring a French Karen who was telling him she was outraged at him. “You’re outraged,” he repeated blithely, continuing to smoke.